An approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on electromagnetic triggering effects due to variations in space weather parameters as a result of strong solar flares is presented and discussed. Theoretically it was shown that a solar flare can cause a burst of telluric currents in seismogenic faults [1-3] comparable in density to electric currents in the Earth's crust generated by an artificial source and resulted in a spatiotemporal redistribution of regional seismicity [4]. As a verification of the proposed approach the statistical analysis of impact of the top 50 solar flares of X-class (1997-2023) on the global seismic activity, as well as on the earthquake preparation zones located in illuminated part of the globe and in the area of 5000 km radius around the subsolarpoint was carried out. It is shown by a method of epoch superposition that for all cases the increase of seismicity is observed, especially in the region around the subsolar point (up to 38%) during 10 days after the solar flare in comparison with preceding 10 days. The case study of aftershock sequence of strong M=9.1 earthquake (Sumatra-Andaman Islands, 26.12.2004) after the solar flare of X7.2 class (20.01.2005) demonstrated that the number of aftershocks with magnitude M≥2.5 increases more than 20 times after the solar flare with a delay of 7 days. For the case of the Darfield earthquake (M=7.1, 04.09.2010, New Zealand) it was shown that strong solar flares of class X and M probably triggered three strong aftershocks (M>5.5) with the same delay of 6 days on the Port Hills fault, which is the most sensitive to external electromagnetic impact from point of view of the fault electrical conductivity and orientation. Based on the obtained results the possible application of natural electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes is discussed for a short-term earthquake prediction using confidently recorded strong external electromagnetic triggering impacts on the specific earthquake preparation zones.

References:

1. Novikov V.A., Sorokin V.M., Yaschenko A.K., MushkarevG.Yu. Physical model and numerical estimated of telluric currents generated by X-ray radiation of a solar flare. Dynamic Processes in Geospheres. 2023;15(1):23-44.(In Russian) https://doi.org/10.26006/29490995_2023_15_1_23.

2. Sorokin V.M., Yashchenko A.K., Novikov V.A., 2019. A possible mechanism of stimulation of seismic activity by ionizing radiation of solar flares. EarthquakeSciences 32(1) 26-34. https://doi.org/10.29382/eqs-2019-0026-3.

3. Sorokin, V.; Yaschenko, A.; Mushkarev, G.; Novikov, V. Telluric Currents Generated by Solar Flare Radiation: Physical Model and Numerical Estimations. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 458. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030458.

4. Zeigarnik, V.A.; Bogomolov, L.M.; Novikov, V.A. Electromagnetic Earthquake Triggering: Field Observations, Laboratory Experiments, and Physical Mechanisms - A Review. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth. 2022, 58, 30–58. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351322010104.

Dr. Victor Novikov is a head of Laboratory of Pulsed Power Systems for Geophysics of the Joint Institute for High Temperatures of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Moscow, Russia, Leading Researcher of Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Senior Researcher of Sadovsky Institute of Geosphere Dynamics of RAS and a head of experimental group at the Research Station of RAS located at the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan). His research interests are R&D of pulsed power systems and their application for geology and geophysics, seismicity triggered by high-power electric pulses, development of physical backgrounds of earthquake control technology and earthquake short-term prediction based on electromagnetic earthquake triggering phenomena and space weather parameters.He served as a keynote and invited speaker at the national and international conferences, symposia, and workshops. He is a member of many international geophysical organizations (AGU, EGU, SSA, JpGU). Author and co-author of over 95 publications in the areas of power engineering and geophysics.Participant of the completed Russian-Chinese cooperation project "Coupling of geomagnetic field variations and deformation processes in the Earth crust" and Principal Co-Investigator of thesuccessfully completed Russian-Chinese cooperation project "Space weather and earthquakes" (2021-2022) supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research and Natural Science Foundation of China. At present he is the Principal Investigator of the project "Computational and experimental studies of the physical mechanisms of electromagnetic triggering of earthquakes" (2024-2025) supported by Russian Science Foundation.