During their late adolescent and early adult years, young women and men in China are often focused upon their adult status goals.  In doing so, they must decide upon their preferences for educational attainment, careers, and, among the most personal and intimate of preferences – marriage and parenthood.  Although sociologists and anthropologists often refer to marriage and childbearing as “cultural universals,” suggesting that everyone feels compelled to marry and have children, the patterns of marriage and childbearing in China, over recent decades, actually demonstrate a divergence from such normative expectations.  Over recent years, there has been a significant increase in the rates of premarital sex and cohabitation across China, and young adults often feel inclined to pursue their own individual desires within intimate relationships.  In addition, recent decades have also seen a steady decline in the rates of marriage, accompanied by a sharp rise in rates of divorce and separation.  The larger social context in which young people develop aspirations for intimacy, relationship, and fertility choices has changed substantially over the past several decades.
Since the 1970s, government policies have attempted to curtail the total fertility rate in China and, overall, these policies have proven to be quite effective in achieving their goals of a lower number of births.  The “Wan, Xi, Shao” (Later, Longer, Fewer) campaign encouraged adults to wait longer before having children, have longer intervals between births, and have fewer children.  This campaign was followed by the One-Child Policy, along with its various iterations, and the ensuing policies were oriented around lowering the total fertility rate.  However, due to the increasing size of the elderly population, along with other demographic issues, a Two-Child Policy was introduced in late 2015, and was followed by the Three-Child Policy of 2021.  The newer policies were intended to encourage adults to bear more children, rather than fewer.  However, within the context of modernization, and coupled with increasing tendencies toward individualism, young adults have not responded with a higher number of births.
Using data from a multi-year study of young women and men enrolled in colleges and universities across China, this study examines the fertility aspirations of young adults, along with the various factors which are affecting such aspirations.  The analyses show that, from 2015 through 2021, the desired number of births among young adults has steadily declined.  Concurrently, aspirations for marriage have also declined, suggesting that traditional expectations of marriage and childbearing are undoubtedly changing.  Although parental influence is shown to be significant in affecting the fertility aspirations of young women and men, both peer and individual factors are also shown to be quite influential.  The findings are framed with the developmental paradigm, and the implications for future fertility patterns, along with other demographic change, are discussed.

Dr. Sampson Lee Blair is a family sociologist and demographer at The State University of New York (Buffalo).  His research focuses upon parent-child relationships, with particular emphasis on child and adolescent development.  In 2010, he received the Fulbright Scholar Award from the U.S. Department of State, wherein he studied parental involvement and children’s educational attainment in the Philippines.  He has examined a wide variety of relationship dynamics within families.  His recent research has focused upon marriage and fertility patterns in China.
He has served as chair of the Children and Youth research section of the American Sociological Association, as senior editor of Sociological Inquiry, Guest Editor of Sociological Studies of Children and Youth, and on the editorial boards of Asian Women, Journal of Applied Youth Studies, Journal of Divorce and Remarriage, Journal of Family Issues, Marriage and Family Review, Social Justice Research, Sociological Inquiry, International Journal of Criminology and Sociology, and Sociological Viewpoints.  He also serves on the international advisory board of Tambara, which is based at Ateneo de Davao University, in the Philippines.  In 2018, he was elected as Vice-President (North America) of the Research Committee on Youth (RC34), in the International Sociological Association.  In 2021, he received the Distinguished Career Service Award from the American Sociological Association, for his work with children and youth.
He is a recipient of the SUNY Chancellor’s Award for Excellence in Teaching, and has taught abroad as a visiting professor at Xavier University (Ateneo de Cagayan) and University of Santo Tomas, in the Philippines.  In China, he has taught at Qingdao University, Shanghai International Studies University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and at East China Normal University (Shanghai). Since 2011, he has served as the editor of Contemporary Perspectives in Family Research.