Biography
Prof. Victor Novikov
Prof. Victor Novikov
Lab of Pulsed Power Systems in Geophysics, Joint Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Title: Possible application of electromagnetic triggering phenomena in seismology for the short-term earthquake prediction
Abstract: 
Earthquakes are the most unpredictable and one of the most devastating natural disasters. Since 1900, 2.3 million people have died in 2,233 earthquakes and due to their secondary effects (tsunami, landslides, fires, etc.) The forecast for the current century is distressing. Over 3 million deaths are anticipated in spite of a progress in earthquake engineering. Today earthquakes are a danger to sustainable development of our civilization. The earthquake hazard mitigation is a great challenge for the scientific community, which concentrated its efforts mainly in two directions: earthquake prediction and earthquake engineering. Today the earthquake forecasting and prediction is an active topic of geophysical research. Long-term forecasts (years to decades) are currently much more reliable than short to medium-term forecasts (days to months). It is not currently possible to make deterministic predictions of when and where earthquakes will happen. For this to be possible, it would be necessary to identify a ‘diagnostic precursor’ - a characteristic pattern of seismic activity or some other physical, chemical or biological change, which would indicate a high probability of an earthquake happening in a small window of space and time. So far, the search for diagnostic precursors has been unsuccessful. Most geoscientists do not believe that there is a realistic prospect of accurate prediction in the foreseeable future, and the principal focus of research is on improving the forecasting of earthquakes. 
Based on laboratory test results and field observation of seismicity triggered by various impacts on the earthquake preparation area the new approach of the short-term earthquake prediction is developed. Among the physical mechanisms of the triggered seismicity an electromagnetic earthquake triggering is considered as a promising direction to solve the problem for specific geoelectrical and geological settings. This approach is based on results of pioneering research carried out in Russia within the last 25 years on the electromagnetic triggering of weak seismicity. The field experiments at different geological settings (Pamir and Northern Tian Shan mountains) and laboratory tests with employment of various equipment (press and shear machines) on injection of DC current into the Earth crust and test samples clearly demonstrated a possibility of earthquake triggering due to impact of electric current pulses on the earthquake preparation area. It should be noted that during strong space weather variations (strong solar flares and geomagnetic storms) the geomagnetically induced currents may occur in the conductive areas of the Earth crust (faults) with the current density similar to the field experiments resulted in electromagnetic earthquake triggering. Thus, it may be concluded that for specific conditions of the earthquake source (the seismogenic fault electric conductivity, fault orientation favorable for generation of maximal geomagnetically induced currents, and subcritical strain-stress conditions in the faults where the strong earthquake is anticipated) and the space weather parameters the earthquake triggering may occur. It is clear that this approach for the short-term prediction is not universal and will work only for specific conditions of the earthquake source. A methodology of the application of proposed short-term prediction is discussed for various seismic prone areas of the globe. Geoscientists are able to identify particular areas of risk and, if there is sufficient information, to make probabilistic forecasts about the likelihood of earthquakes happening in a specified area with sufficient electric conductivity over a specified period of the space weather strong events. These forecasts will be based on data gathered through global seismic monitoring networks, high-density local monitoring in known risk areas, and geological field work, as well as from historical records. The forecasts will improve our theoretical understanding of earthquake physics, and these geophysical models will be verified against filed observations. 
The reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 21-55-53053 and NSFC, project number 4201101274.
Biography: 
Dr. Victor Novikov is a head of Laboratory of Pulsed Power Systems for Geophysics of the Joint Institute for High Temperatures of Russian Academy of Sciences. His research interests are R&D of pulsed power systems and their application for geology and geophysics, seismicity triggered by high-power electric pulses, development of physical backgrounds of earthquake control technology and earthquake short-term prediction based on electromagnetic earthquake triggering phenomena. He served as a keynote and invited speaker at the national and international conferences, symposia, and workshops. He is a member of many international geophysical organizations (AGU, EGU, SSA, JpGU). Author and co-author of over 90 publications in the areas of power engineering and geophysics. Participant of the completed Russian-Chinese cooperation project "Coupling of geomagnetic field variations and deformation processes in the Earth crust" and Principal Co-Investigator of the current Russian-Chinese cooperation project "Space weather and earthquakes" (2021-2022) supported by RFBR and NSFC.